Locked on Sports
Research - Defense based on shot location
David Locke - February 5th, 2012
PREMISE OF RESEARCH
The main focus of my NBA research this season is how much of defense is simply forcing the opponent to shot from the correct location.
|
POINT PER POSSESSION |
||
|
LOCATION |
EFG% |
Pts per |
|
At Rim |
63 |
1.26 |
|
3-9 feet |
37.3 |
0.746 |
|
10-16 feet |
37.9 |
0.758 |
|
17-23 feet |
37.7 |
0.754 |
|
3 pointer |
51.7 |
1.034 |
|
FT% |
74.3 |
1.486 |
The premise is that if you can keep teams away from the rim and off the three point line you will be a good defensive team. The website hoopdata.com keeps a stat called XeFG. This is the expected effective field goal percentage of a team based on where they take their shots. Expected field goal percentage weighs a three point shot an extra *.5 since it is worth 50% more.
Twelve of the 30 teams in the league last year allowed an effective shooting % that was almost exactly what would have been expected simply by where the shots were taken. 20 of the 30 teams were within 2% of what was expected, 5 were considerably better and 5 were considerably worse.
Last year, the 4 best defensive teams in the NBA were Chicago, Boston, Orlando, Milwaukee and Miami. Orlando did the best job of any team at forcing teams to take the “correct or least efficient” shot. Boston and Milwaukee were 11th and 13th and Chicago was 16th with Miami 18th.
This shows that the best teams defensively are able to contest shots better than the other teams in the NBA. It also tells us most teams are not in that group. Chicago, Boston and Miami were remarkable shot contesters last year, whereas Cleveland, Detroit, Sacramento and Phoenix were very poor defending the shot.
JAZZ THIS SEASON
This season the Jazz are doing a better job than in year’s past at forcing the correct shot. This is largely because they are not following as much. For just the shots the Jazz are at 21st in the NBA at expected field goal % defense. In other words if every one shot average against every team the Jazz would come out 21st. Utah is actually doing a better job defending the shot than expected. They are allowing EFG% of 48.7% and based on where shots are being taken they should be allowing 49.7%.
I will continue to work on this throughout the season
Emptying the Noggin after the Jazz win v. Lakers
David Locke - February 4th, 2012
Emptying the Noggin
· Mr. Watson – was tremendous tonight. He controlled the game. He created plays. He was conducting on every play. He was directing traffic. Defensively, he killed Goudelock. Watson’s intelligence as a player was so evident tonight. He used every possession on the floor to its maximum. He knew who Goudelock was and took advantage of him and all of his weaknesses. He did it all. I want to just keep typing more and more to make sure I get the point across. He was brilliant, absolutely brilliant.
· I should have know today at 12:22 I was on the bike watching the Lakers v. the Nuggets and my phone buzzed – Earl Watson “I am playing tonight” Earl and I are friends, we communicate, but I usually instigate it not vice versa. I am assuming he was so excited he just wanted to tell someone and I was fortunate enough to be the recipient. This just tells you how badly he wanted to play
· This type of game is an incredible growth opportunity for the Jazz younger players. These are real minutes, against top notch opponents. They are possessions where every moment matters, every mistake is magnified. These are minutes to learn and experience to grow with. Look how different Kanter has been since he got those minutes against Portland in the clutch. He is so confident. Same goes for Favors.
· The play of Favor and Kanter in the early part of the fourth was the key to the game. Bynum is the Lakers offense option in the 4th quarter with Gasol and Bryant on the bench and Kanter played him great and when Bynum switched over Favors did as well. On the offensive end Watson lead the two bigs into great scoring opportunities and they delivered. They were amazing on the glass as well.
· Gordon Hayward did a terrific job on Kobe denying the ball. He still has lesson to learn he committed the same foul twice on his jump shots, but he battled Kobe. Gordon never gives up the slightest edge. He battles and he made Kobe work really hard to get the ball tonight. Who would have ever imagined his defense would be his strength. This was a defensive night for Hayward you can’t ask him yet to guard Kobe and have an offensive game and he did the job the team needed to win. Now he gets Carmelo on Monday and Danny Granger on Tuesday.
· Millsap and Jefferson continued to work really hard tonight and their final numbers show it - double doubles for both and 13 rebounds and 2 blocks for each.
· The bench and depth for the Jazz was vital. The Lakers got nothing on the back end of the back to back from anyone other than their big three, Kobe, Gasol and Bynum and they needed more than that.
· Josh Howard did a nice job of carrying the offense for the opening portion of the 4th quarter.
· Tip of the hat to Tyrone Corbin who had a major back issue tonight. Most times I have been around a team with a coach that is under the weather or off his game his team shows and that was not the case tonight.
· Once again they played very very hard.
· Telling moment on the growth of Enes Kanter – Lakers had to sub out Murphy because he couldn’t handle Kanter and go to McRoberts who hadn’t played at all recently. McRoberts had a key turnover not knowing where his teammates were.
· Growth of Favors and Kanter – Favors started the year 10 of 33 shooting in the post and is now 10 of his last 15 (or close to that) and Kanter started 4 of 21 shooting on post plays and is 6 of his last 11 (or close) - Remarkable work from Corbin and his staff. Al Jefferson spends a lot of time with those bigs and deserves credit.
· Great crowd tonight !!!!!!!!!! Oh yeah and I hate the friggin Lakers -- GREAT WIN
Jerry Sloan’s Statement
David Locke - February 4th, 2012
"I would like to set the record straight regarding my retirement from the Utah Jazz," he said. "I had the unwavering support of the Miller family during my 23 seasons as head coach with the franchise and I left on my own volition. It is not true that the Millers undermined my authority as head coach. I had their complete backing to run the team as I wished and was assured that no player could ever overrule my decisions.
"The Millers encouraged me to stay with the team and gave me multiple opportunities to do so. They felt strongly that I should wait at least until the end of the season to resign and did everything they could to keep me coaching.
"I do not wish to make any further statements regarding this issue. It is time for me and my family to move on and I ask that the media respect my wishes and respect the integrity of the Miller family and all that they have done for the Utah Jazz and this community."
TIP OFF - Special Edition - Karl Malone and Greg Miller
David Locke - February 4th, 2012
The Jazz organization is in the midst of fueding comments between Greg Miller and Karl Malone. I do my best to give some thoughts on the issues that have been presented and why this has taken place.
PODCAST - Friends of Locke - Locke goes on Warriors PBP Tim Roye’s weekly show
David Locke - February 3rd, 2012
Friend of Locke podacst as David Locke, Utah Jazz play by play announcer, is the guest on Warriors play by play announer Tim Roye's weekly show
BLG Live Blog: Feb 3, 2012
Kevin Ferguson - February 3rd, 2012
1320 KFAN's Bolerjack, Locke, and Garrard feature a live blog for you to interact with the show. Previous editions of the live blog can always be found at 1320kfan.com in our archives. Make sure you log in with a name in order to have your comments approved.
Tip Off Feb 3rd
David Locke - February 3rd, 2012
If you want to hear David Locke tip off is the place and the only place - today's topics a quick check on the Super Bowl and Brian Johnson and Brandon Doman and then digging deep into the Jazz and the first 3 stages of development
